Manny Ramirez has signed with the Dodgers, making him the one of precious few big-name free agents not signed by the New York Yankees this offseason.
JD Drew has a bad back.
Brad Penny has “shoulder weakness.”
It’s time for some good news, Red Sox Nation. How does this headline grab you: Lester Wins 2009 AL Cy Young.
Yep, you heard it here first. Jon Lester for the 2009 AL Cy Young. I’ve crunched some numbers for you, some of which are entirely meaningless, but all of which I hope to twist in some way to make you utterly convinced that Jon Lester is a lock for the ‘09 Cy Young.
First of all, let’s look at Spring Training stats. Sure, Lester’s Spring Training outings have been nearly perfect so far, but should he perform miserably in 
his next few outings, he’s still very much in the Cy Young race. Last year’s AL winner, Cliff Lee, had a 8.31 ERA in four spring appearances, while fellow Cy Young winner Tim Lincecum had a 9.00 ERA in three appearances. I’m sure the “Cy Young” chant wasn’t quite on the tips of the tongues of the Cleveland and San Francisco fans with those numbers. But in case Lester continues his spring dominance, let’s not forget the fact that in 2005, AL Cy Young winner Bartolo Colon (how far the mighty have fallen!) had a 2.65 ERA in Spring Training. The spring stats support Lester for Cy Young no matter how well or poorly he pitches.
If you want the truth, though, for the Cy Young winners from 2005-2009, the average ERA for the spring training prior to their Cy Young season is 5.20. Not exactly Cy Young-esque. Maybe the winners get all the runs out of their system early. Hey, Lester, can’t you start giving up some runs to make my data match?
With Spring Training stats being about as meaningless as a snow shovel in Fort Myers, maybe we should look at some regular season data as well. The average ERA for a Cy Young winner in his previous season is 4.06. Again, I’m taking the stats from the eight Cy Young winners from 2005-2008. The best previous season ERA from that group was from from perennial Cy Young winner Johan Santana, who posted a 2.88 in 2005 before winning the award with a 2.77 in 2006. Not too shabby, eh? Compare that to Cliff Lee, who won the 2008 Cy Young after posting an atrocious 6.29 ERA in the majors in 2007 before being demoted to AAA. However, if we throw out Lee’s numbers, who was had by far the worst previous season stats, the average ERA was 3.74. Lester’s last season 3.21.
I’m aware that more goes into the Cy Young voting than simple ERAs. I’m far too lazy to calculate other variables like innings pitched and quality starts, but the whole reason I’m not arguing Dice-K for Cy Young, in spite of his 2.90 ERA, started 29 games and only pitched 167.2 innings. Josh Beckett started fewer games and pitched more innings, but I’m not arguing Beckett for Cy Young, so forget all that.
Truthfully, there seem to be two types of Cy Young winners: the perennial contenders like CC Sabathia, Johan Santana, and the Pedro Martinez of two years ago, and the “Where the hell did that guy come from” winners, a la Cliff Lee and Chris Carpenter. I’m hoping Jon Lester ends up in the former group.
Here’s my most convicing stat. Yep, I’ve saved the best for last. 2008 was Lester’s third season in the MLB, but his first complete season there. His 2008 ERA was 3.21, and in 2007 it was 4.57. In the two seasons prior to CC Sabathia’s 2007 Cy Young, he had an ERA of 3.22 - precisely .01 higher than Lester’s - and 4.03. Similar? I think so.
There’s really no way to predict who will have a Cy Young season and when, but Lester’s got the stuff. He’s got the grit, he’s got the talent, and he’s got the numbers in his short career. The best competition he have could very well come from his own teammate, Josh Beckett, another player who is close to landing on the perennial Cy Young contender list, if only he’d win one. Either way, we’re in for a well-pitched season.
